AS UK inflation unexpectedly climbed to 3.6% in June, driven largely by rising food and energy prices, a new report from leading think tank the Autonomy Institute warns that far worse is yet to come over the next two decades.
On the Horizon: Climate Induced Inflation and the Price of Food projects an impending “climateflation” crisis that could drive food prices up by 34% by 2050, pushing 951,000 more people into poverty without urgent state intervention.
The report reveals how extreme weather – particularly heatwaves and droughts – will disrupt food production both abroad and at home, driving up costs in a country that imports nearly half its food. Despite mounting warnings from the Climate Change Committee and others, UK government planning to develop resilience in food systems against exogenous shocks such as extreme weather remains dangerously inadequate.
This research integrates climate data, international and domestic trade analysis, advanced economic modelling, and household level microsimulations to assess the socioeconomic impact of global warming – revealing how rising heatwaves and droughts will imperil staple crops, disrupt supply chains, and intensify inflationary pressures.
• Import dependency makes the UK highly vulnerable to climate shocks abroad, especially from Europe and Brazil.
• Domestic farming is already under pressure, with storms and floods slashing UK vegetable production by 12% in 2023.
• Heatwaves alone could push nearly 1 million more people into poverty by 2050—with children hit hardest.
• Food inflation is now closely tracking global temperatures, suggesting worsening price instability in the years ahead.
To confront this looming threat, the report calls on the government to expand public service provision to incorporate food – as well as the decommodification of many goods that are currently distributed only through market mechanisms. These include:
• A ‘basket’ of basic essentials delivered to every household in the UK – including a range of fruit and vegetables, rice, pasta and some proteinous food – free of charge.
• Publicly funded diners providing hot meals for everyone, not just food bank users.
• A national buffer stock to stabilise prices during disruptions.
• Price controls on essential foods to curb “greedflation”.
• Investment in agroecological farming and a basic income for farmers.
Chief Executive at the Autonomy Institute Will Stronge said: “Without proactive intervention, rising heatwaves and droughts could drive food prices up by a third by mid-century. Climateflation is no longer a distant risk. It’s a present reality. We need to build real economic resilience and that means rethinking what public service provision can and should provide.”
